Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4094
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4094 · CVG → ORD
departs 5:34 AM ET · arrives 6:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.