Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4102
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4102 · ORD → DEN
departs 6:36 AM CT · arrives 8:01 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.26 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.