Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4117
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4117 · ORD → FWA
departs 8:59 AM CT · arrives 11:03 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at FWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FWA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at FWA that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
FWA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.