Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4135 · ORD → TUL
departs 8:14 AM CT · arrives 10:18 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.