Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4150
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4150 · MHT → ORD
departs 7:14 AM ET · arrives 9:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
MHT is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.06 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.