Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4179
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4179 · FSM → DFW
departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 7:32 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FSM that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from FSM are usually not late
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.39 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.