Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4181 · LEX → DFW
departs 6:09 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.