Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4242 · DFW → FWA
departs 8:17 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at FWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FWA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at FWA that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FWA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.