Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4277
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4277 · RAP → DFW
departs 6:03 AM MT · arrives 9:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.