Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4331
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4331 · DFW → SGF
departs 7:37 AM CT · arrives 9:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 5%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SGF that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
7am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into SGF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.