Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MX 1004 · CAK → MCO
departs 5:55 AM ET · arrives 8:21 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave CAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
CAK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt
Ceiling 700 ft
Visibility 5 mi
Precip 0.14 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.