Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MX 404 · MCO → CHS
departs 7:11 AM ET · arrives 8:38 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 0.3 mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.