Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5249 · PHL → LEX

departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LEX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LEX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5249 · PHL → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?