Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5257 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

OH 5257 · LEX → PHL

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ LEX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.22 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5257 · LEX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?