Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5441 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5441 · PHL → BGR

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 4:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5441 · PHL → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?