Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5532 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5532 · PHL → MSN

departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 5:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5532 · PHL → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?