Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5543 · XNA → PHL

departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at XNA that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ XNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.70 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5543 · XNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?