Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3741 · LAS → SAN
departs 12:57 PM PT · arrives 2:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 39%
Fri 10/16 42%
Sat 10/17 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.