Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3858 · ELM → DTW
departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 7:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DTW that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.