Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4092 · BZN → SEA
departs 8:25 AM MT · arrives 9:28 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
↓
8am departures from BZN are usually not late
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.