Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4648 · ATW → ORD
departs 8:14 AM CT · arrives 9:38 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.