Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4761 · MCI → DEN
departs 11:40 AM CT · arrives 12:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sun 10/18 11%
Mon 10/19 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.27 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.