Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4794 · SBN → ORD
departs 9:42 AM ET · arrives 9:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SBN that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SBN is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.