Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4955
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4955 · ORD → DSM
departs 7:18 AM CT · arrives 8:38 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DSM that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.