Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4974 · SBN → ORD
departs 7:14 AM ET · arrives 7:16 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SBN that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.