Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5020 · JLN → ORD
departs 7:28 AM CT · arrives 9:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave JLN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at JLN that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JLN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.39 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.