Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5046 · JST → IAD
departs 6:40 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Mon 10/12 35%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
No breakdown for this forecast yet.
Weather at each end
JST (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.