Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5299
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5299 · LAX → FAT
departs 10:41 AM PT · arrives 12:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.