Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5795 · ORD → TUL
departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 11:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.