Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5815 · PIA → ORD
departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at PIA that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PIA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.51 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.