Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5902
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 5902 · MSN → ORD
departs 4:58 AM CT · arrives 6:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.