Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 6286 · LAX → TUL
departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 3:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
10am departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.