Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6312
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 6312 · ERI → ORD
departs 8:09 AM ET · arrives 8:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 17%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ERI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
8am departures from ERI are usually not late
Weather at each end
ERI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.