Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 6434 · OKC → PHX
departs 8:31 AM CT · arrives 9:02 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
8am departures from OKC are usually not late
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.11 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.