Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 6454 · GRR → ORD
departs 9:40 AM ET · arrives 9:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
GRR is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.