Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2948
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PD 2948 · BOS → YTZ
departs 8:13 PM ET · arrives 10:34 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13 41%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.