Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5800 · PHL → BUF
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PT's recent on-time record
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.