Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5809 · BUF → PHL
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 31%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at BUF that day
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.