Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5812 · PHL → RIC
departs 6:24 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 33%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.