Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
PT 5824 · PHL → MDT
departs 8:16 PM ET · arrives 9:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 14%
Mon 10/19 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at MDT that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.