Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5949 · ORF → PHL
departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 32%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.