Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5951 · MDT → PHL
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
2pm departures from MDT are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.