Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 5951 · PHL → MDT
departs 1:01 PM ET · arrives 1:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.