Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6123
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
PT 6123 · BGR → PHL
departs 10:40 AM ET · arrives 12:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
10am departures from BGR are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.29 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.