Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2052
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
QX 2052 · SEA → MFR
departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 12:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.