Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2203
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
QX 2203 · SEA → SBP
departs 6:58 AM PT · arrives 9:28 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SBP is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.