Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
QX 2241 · SAN → LAS
departs 1:46 PM PT · arrives 3:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 39%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.