Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
QX 2419 · BZN → SEA
departs 1:53 PM MT · arrives 2:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 29%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.