Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3051 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

SY 3051 · TOL → LAS

departs 8:29 AM ET · arrives 9:33 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at TOL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TOL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3051 · TOL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?