Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 11
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
TK 11 · IST → JFK
departs 6:38 PM +03 · arrives 10:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 30%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.